第七百六十二章 利空出尽(2)(第2 / 2页)
“我也想不明白,也许钢价的短期底部真的已经出现了。”
许东想了想,又问:“那你说钢价这次触底以后会不会再创历史新高呢?”
李欣说:“我觉得不可能了。”
“为什么呢?”
“道理很简单啊,3月7号那天披露的宏观数据已经说明房地产业不可能再像去年那样超高速发展了。在这个前提下,螺纹钢的价格近期还想再创历史新高几乎不可能了。再加上跟去年和前年钢价动辄800~1000元的下跌幅度相比,目前的下跌幅度只是去年和前年下跌幅度的60%左右,其价格将来向下的空间要比向上的空间大得多。”
许东有些不敢相信:“你是说钢价今后还会继续下跌?”
李欣点点头说:“是的,如果3月份房屋新开工累计面积同比数据还是下降的话,那么螺纹钢的价格向下继续跌到4200元一线就是不可避免的。”
“向下还有500元的空间啊?那你手里的10000手空单岂不是可以不用平仓出场?”
李欣说:“按理说是这样的,可今天的涨势太猛了,我也不确定这一波触底之后向上会反弹到什么位置、持续的时间会有多长?所以明天如果开盘后价格没有大幅下跌的话,还是先出场观望落袋为安,免得利润再次大幅缩水,这一个月就白干了。”
“价格涨上去之后你还敢做空吗?”
“要是3月份的宏观数据还是继续偏空的话,我肯定还会做空的,因为在我自己的数学模型中,螺纹钢的价格还会继续下跌的。”
许东听了之后非常感兴趣地问:“你的数学模型是什么?”
李欣突然意识到自己说漏了嘴,连忙掩饰道:“其实也没什么了,主要还是2月份那个宏观数据偏空,要是3月份这个数据继续偏空的话,就会继续对螺纹钢的价格形成压力。”
“哦。”许东也看得出来李欣有些遮遮掩掩的,既然李欣已经不打算说了,他也不好继续追问。
螺纹钢价格出现了罕见的大幅上涨,这让黎文眼前一亮,可是此时他还不敢高兴得太早。毕竟此时铁矿石普氏指数还只有165.5美元,跟192.5美元的成本价相比,下跌了27美元,那30万吨铁矿石的实际亏损还在6,000万元以上。所以关于螺纹钢和铁矿石的价格将来是涨是跌他不发表任何意见,他怕万一自己再说错了,将来又会再次成为李欣嘲笑自己的笑柄。
可是李欣一天之内利润大幅缩水了近800万元这件事却让他心里由衷地高兴,在办公室里一言不发坐了几个小时的他这个时候站起身来吹着口哨出去了,这跟他最近一个月进出办公室时愁眉苦脸的模样形成了鲜明的对比。
铁矿石价格大幅上涨的这一幕,也让苟峰的精神为之一振,这对他来说是意外的惊喜。今天早上看见铁矿石普氏指数又下跌了2.5美元的时候,打死他也不敢相信今天螺纹钢的价格会像这样大幅上涨。这可是一个月以来罕见的好消息,这一幕让他看到了矿价大幅上涨的一线希望。压抑了太久的苟峰在心里暗暗安慰自己说:这世上哪有一直下跌不上涨的东西?暴跌之后有暴涨,看来老子是要熬出头了!
这件事情虽然让他很高兴,但真正让他期待的却不是这件事。下午四点过后,苟峰看见自己银行账户上还是没有丝毫动静,又忍不住打电话给约翰:“约翰,这都快下班了,怎么我银行账户上还没有动静啊?他们不会是把这件事给忘了吧?”苟峰现在最怕这件事情出现闪失,要是矿石生产商赖账,不把这笔钱兑现给自己,自己还真的拿他们没有办法,毕竟这件事情是没有办法摆在台面上说的。
约翰说:“苟总,你别急嘛。你们不是有一句老话吗?叫做心急吃不得热豆腐。总公司那边和我们这里的时差几乎是一个对时,他们那边现在是凌晨4点左右,你得等到今天晚上9点左右他们才开始星期一的工作日,到那个时候你再看看,也许钱就到账了。”
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